Risk

Most people fundamentally misunderstand risk.

Risk is a broad, somewhat useful, metric that people use to predict future outcomes. Risk is only correct relationally to the system that its defined by.

It’s a way to quantify a lack of knowledge in relation to predicted future outcomes. Risk is inherent to all systems designed to predict the future as all systems of human understanding are limited.

So how to succeed in high risk circumstances? Know something others don’t, or better, know something that others think is false. These asymmetries in knowledge lead to arbitrage that can be exploited. This is, atleast, how people will explain highly atypical outcomes after the fact.

It’s more useful to ignore risk. Risk is noise, rather a reaction to noise. A flawed prediction based on flawed knowledge. Risk is meaningless. Just build, no one can come close to modeling the extent of human creativity.

You don’t think about the risk you take driving to work, you just drive. It’s not useful to do something and simultaneously think about risk.

A lot of things are like this–entropy or fuzzy probability used to attempt to quantify logical unknowns. This should at least tip you off to the legitimacy of the system.